Republican Prospects for Retaking Senate are Strong for 2012
The 2012 political outlook for US Senate races looks favorable for a Republican takeover. For starters, the GOP needs only to defend 10 seats, whereas the Democrats have 22 seats to defend (counting the seats held by Independent Senators Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders who caucus with the Democrats). With the Democrats holding a fairly slim 53-47 majority in the Senate, if Republicans were to win just 13 or 14 of the 32 races at stake, they would regain control of the US Senate. In the event of a 50-50 tie, the party that wins the Presidential election of 2012 would be in control with the Vice President in the position to cast tie-breaking votes.
With the Republicans needing just 3 or 4 Democratic held seats to seize control of the Senate, their odds look very strong. If the political environment in 2012 is anywhere close to the anti-Obama wave election of 2010, the GOP could not only regain senate control, but they could possibly gain in the neighborhood of a dozen seats and approach a filibuster-proof majority. With the election just over a year away, an early look at Republican prospects reveals a Democratic majority in the Senate that is very fragile indeed. A race-by-race analysis shows many more vulnerable Democratic held seats than Republican held seats. While much can change in one year's time, here is a current analysis of where the races stand with just over a year until election day, ranked in order of likelihood of Republican takeover.
Low Hanging Fruit: North Dakota and Nebraska
The Republicans have a distinct advantage in two Democratic controlled races. Gaining these two seats would require them only to pick up one or two additional seats from all the other races to wrestle control of the Senate.
North Dakota: Ripe for the Taking
Just three years ago, North Dakota's entire federal delegation was composed of Democrats (Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad and House Representative Earl Pomeroy). However, the state is solidly red in presidential races (although Obama kept it within single digits in 2008, avoiding the blow out losses that his predecessors Kerry and Gore incurred). North Dakota voters are not afraid to support local Democrats who are sensitive to local agriculture issues and are either populists (Dorgan) or fiscal moderates (Conrad and Pomeroy). However, they tend to be culturally moderate to conservative and are generally unhappy with Democrats at the national level, aside from their own politicians. Pomeroy was crushed by Rick Berg in the House race in 2010, and the seat vacated by Byron Dorgan fell overwhelmingly to Republican John Hoeven. With North Dakota souring on Barack Obama and Senator Kent Conrad retiring, this open seat race, is a virtual slam dunk for the Republicans.
Nebraska: Ben Nelson's Days are Numbered
Ben Nelson is the most endangered incumbent Senator in the country running for reelection. Nelson has survived Nebraska's red tide in the past, but being a Democrat holding office in Nebraska is a position that does not have great job security. Nelson votes more conservative than his Democratic senate colleagues, but that may not be enough to save him in 2012. Nelson has become very unpopular in his state. Complicating his chances, he is not that well liked by liberals either.
Nelson's maneuvering on the health care legislation irritated conservatives and liberals alike. Showing himself to be politically tone deaf, he negotiated a special clause for Nebraska residents that would give them favorable treatment and Medicare forever. However, instead of ingratiating himself to his constituents with this parochial gesture of generosity, his back room deal turned off voters and backfired against him. Liberals blamed him for holding the health care legislation hostage, and conservatives excoriated him for signing onto "Obama care". Moderates, conservatives and liberals alike were not amused by the arm twisting he engaged in to extract concessions from the White House and his fellow senators.
Nelson's political obituary will be written in 2012, unless the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot. Fortunately for Nelson, they seem to be intent on doing just that. His likely opponent John Bruning once held a double digit lead, but because of a series of mishaps now leads by a mere four points. While Nelson is still decidedly unpopular in the Cornhusker state, he can fight for survival and perhaps follow the model used by Harry Reid, who was in deep jeopardy in 2010, but was ultimately able to survive by capitalizing on the hapless campaign of his extremist opponent Sharron Angle. While Nelson is in trouble, he might be able to prevail if he can somehow demonize his opponent to the point that he is the last man standing.
Other Races Where Republicans Might Hold a Slight Edge; WI, MT, MO and VA
If Barack Obama remains unpopular and the GOP has the wind at its back as it did in 2010, then several more seats appear to favor Republican takeover. While Republicans are not themselves very popular, if the election becomes a referendum on the Obama presidency, an open race in Wisconsin and Virginia, and two Democratic held seats in red-leaning states that are held by freshmen senators are likely to flip. For more details on the other races, see part II of this discussion.
The State of the Race: A Realistic Assessment
Given the number of races in play, the most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of a four to six seat gain for Republicans. One possible combination is that they lose the race in Massachusetts and win contests in North Dakota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri and Virginia, leading to a 52-48 GOP majority in 2013. Of course, if things really turned in their favor they could win many more seats. Conversely, if President Obama's standing improved and the political climate turned left, the GOP gains could be very small or not at all. At this stage however, a Republican takeover by a modest number of seats appears to be the most likely outcome.
Keith Darling-Brekhus - Keith Darling-Brekhus is a political and social analyst. He has an MA in Sociology from the University of Missouri-Columbia.
