Beyond Low Hanging Fruit: Other Races Where Republicans Might Hold a Slight Edge
As noted in part I, the GOP has great prospects for making gains in North Dakota and Nebraska.
If Barack Obama remains unpopular and the GOP has the wind at its back as it did in 2010, then several more seats appear to favor Republican takeover. While Republicans are not themselves very popular, if the election becomes a referendum on the Obama presidency, an open race in Wisconsin and Virginia, and two Democratic held seats in red-leaning states that are held by freshmen senators are likely to flip.
Wisconsin: Open Seat up for Grabs
With Herb Kohl retiring, the Badger state will have a marquis senate race on its hands. Wisconsin tilted heavily to the right in 2010, bouncing progressive Senator Russ Feingold for Tea Party activist Ron Johnson and choosing Scott Walker to be governor. Although Walker has been controversial, recall efforts against his Republican legislative supporters fell short of changing the balance of the state senate. Tommy Thompson is the probable frontrunner for the GOP nomination, and Madison congresswoman Tammy Baldwin appears to be the frontrunner for the Democrats. The race is shaping up to be a toss up, that could very well be decided by a razor thin margin.
Montana: Rehberg Versus Tester
Jon Tester won one of the closest races in the nation, when he ousted ethically embattled senator Conrad Burns in 2006. Now Tester will face off against Denny Rehberg in what is likely to be a very tight race again. Lightly populated Montana will receive lots of attention and out of state money as this race may be the tipping point race for control of the US Senate. Rehberg was one of only four Republican representatives in the US House who voted against Paul Ryan's Medicare eviscerating budget. Obviously, he had his attention focused on not making himself victim of being cast as anti-Medicare in the upcoming senate battle. The race is already in full swing with both candidates fighting hard to define themselves as champions of Montanans and to distance themselves from Washington DC, where they both serve as lawmakers. For example, each candidate has tried to outmaneuver the other on how anti-wolf they are, presumably because ranchers vote and wolves do not.
Missouri: McCaskill Faces Uphill Battle for Political Survival
Like Tester, Missouri's Claire McCaskill joined the Senate in 2006, narrowly defeating a Republican incumbent in a red-leaning state. Like Tester, she is likely to face a tough battle for re-election against whomever the GOP nominates. Sarah Steelman led the GOP field in the latest poll, but regardless of who McCaskill draws as an opponent, it may be difficult for her to survive, given the state's slight Republican tilt.
Virginia: Titanic Open Seat Battle Between Tim Kaine and George Allen
Virginia, like Montana and Missouri, was another historic red state (although it is arguably swinging towards the Democrats and chose Obama over McCain in 2008) that elected a Democratic senator in a close race in 2006. Jim Webb toppled George Allen, largely due to a campaign gaffe by Allen where he referred to an Indian American as "macaca". Allen, has returned although Webb has retired. Former Governor Tim Kaine will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee, setting up an epic match-up between two political heavyweights for the state that could determine the balance of the US Senate.
If the Floodgates Open: Eleven Other Opportunities for the GOP
In addition to the six races where the Republicans might have an edge, the GOP has at least eleven other races that could flip their way in a wave election. Conceivably, if all the dominoes fell their way and they held onto all of the current GOP seats, they could gain 17 seats and hold a filibuster proof majority of 64-36 seats come 2013. The additional seats they could takeaway from the Democrats in approximate order of ease are WV, FL, OH, NM, MI, WA, CT, PA, CA, NJ and MN.
West Virginia's Joe Manchin remains popular, but with the state's conservative lean and its distaste for President Obama, the state can hardly be regarded as safe for the Democrats. Florida's Bill Nelson has mediocre approval ratings, but he is leading in the polls for now. Sherrod Brown in Ohio could be vulnerable, but his populist working-class persona is an asset rather than a liability in this economic recession. New Mexico's open seat leans Democratic on the strength of Latino voters.
Michigan's Debbie Stabenow and Washington's Maria Cantwell are often regarded as endangered senators, but neither seems to be in jeopardy yet. Connecticut could be competitive if a moderate candidate like Chris Shays is nominated, but the GOP seems hell bent on selecting Linda McMahon trading electability for ideological purity. Pennsylvania and California are long shot opportunities. Bob Casey remains popular in the Keystone state, while California's Dianne Feinstein is quite unpopular at the moment, but it remains to be seen whether Republicans can turn that into a political liability for her. Defeating Feinstein would be a monumental upset, but with her low job approval numbers it is no longer unthinkable. New Jersey and Minnesota could be competitive though they do not appear to be yet.
Six more races in Maryland, Delaware, Hawaii, New York, Vermont and Rhode Island, offer Republicans little prospects for victory even under the best of circumstances.
Playing Defense: Republican Held Seats that Pose a Danger for the GOP
Of the ten Republican held Senate seats, only four of the ten seem even marginally competitive. Tennessee, Mississippi, Utah and Wyoming are safe and Texas and Indiana would only flip in a disaster scenario. That leaves Maine, Arizona, Nevada and Massachusetts on the playing field for the Democrats. Arizona's race has yet to develop the contours necessary to hazard a prediction, though it seems likely to at least lean red when the candidates have been chosen. Maine is safe if Republicans re-nominate moderate Olympia Snowe, but if the Tea Party wing torpedoes her in favor of a right-wing candidate than Maine vaults from safe to a probable Democratic pickup.
Massachusetts and Nevada: The Democrats Best Opportunities
Scott Brown made political history when he defeated Martha Coakley to capture Ted Kennedy's old senate seat in Massachusetts. Brown remains relatively popular in the state, but he has drawn a formidable challenger in consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, who has mobilized the Democratic base in the state. This is likely to be a closely watched and entertaining campaign. While many analysts still give Brown a slight advantage, this appears to be the one race really where the Republican incumbent is an underdog, given the state's blue tendencies.
Nevada is also a toss up, but probably a better chance for a hold for the Republicans than Massachusetts. Dean Heller, who replaced scandal-plagued John Ensign, continues to maintain a modest lead over challenger Shelly Berkeley.
The State of the Race: A Realistic Assessment
Given the number of races in play, the most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of a four to six seat gain for Republicans. One possible combination is that they lose the race in Massachusetts and win contests in North Dakota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri and Virginia, leading to a 52-48 GOP majority in 2013. Of course, if things really turned in their favor they could win many more seats. Conversely, if President Obama's standing improved and the political climate turned left, the GOP gains could be very small or not at all. At this stage however, a Republican takeover by a modest number of seats appears to be the most likely outcome.
Keith Darling-Brekhus - Keith Darling-Brekhus is a political and social analyst. He has an MA in Sociology from the University of Missouri-Columbia.
